Archive for February 2018
Practical Time Series Forecasting – Bounding Uncertainty
“A good forecaster is not smarter than everyone else, he merely has his ignorance better organized.” ― Anonymous Predicting the future is an exercise in probability rather than certainty. As we have mentioned several times over the course of these articles, your forecast model will be wrong. It is just a matter of how useful…
Read MorePractical Time Series Forecasting – Meta Models
“There are two kinds of forecasters: those who don’t know, and those who don’t know they don’t know.” ― John Kenneth Galbraith After an extensive model building and vetting process, along the lines we previously discussed here and here, the practical forecaster may still be left with several strong performing models. These models perform similarly…
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